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Mark Draper talks with Hamish Douglass (CEO of Magellan Financial Group) about the next big thing that investors should keep an eye out for, which is - What happens when the  United States stop Quant Easing?

Quantitive Easing has been referred to as the printing of money and involves the US Federal Reserve expanding their balance sheet to purchase US Government Bonds, which in turn has resulted in long term interest rates being kept artificially low.

Watch a 7 minute interview that explains what investors should be paying attention to over the next few years, from one of Australia's best macro-economic thinkers.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=seGsi57g0WU

Sunday, 19 May 2013 13:47

Australian Banks - are they in Bubble Territory?

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A research report from UBS recently described Australian Bank share prices as a "bubble".

We ask this question of Kerr Neilson (CEO) and Andrew Clifford (CIO) of Platinum Asset Management.

They do not believe that Australian Banks are in a bubble - but believe that there are many other banks globally with superior growth characteristics at far cheaper prices.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vsa4r56TEcI

Sunday, 19 May 2013 08:45

$AUD - is this the bottom?

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We talk with Kerr Neilson (CEO Platinum Asset Management) and Andrew Clifford (Chief Investment Officer Platinum Asset Management) to discuss the future of the $AUD.

 

They provide a very candid view on the Australian dollar and how Platinum's portfolio's are positioned to take advantage of the currency.

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ei8rQUL1zmA

Wednesday, 08 May 2013 13:32

How low can interest rates go?

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Interest Rate ImageWe expect the Reserve Bank will complement its May rate cut of 0.25% with a follow up move of 0.25% in June. Rates are expected to eventually
bottom out at 2% by the first quarter of 2014 (that is 0.75% lower than today).

There are ample precedents for a May/June move. Over the last 10 years the Bank has moved rates on four occasions in May with two of those occasions being followed up in June.

The really key new developments over the last few weeks have been evidence
of an even lower than expected trajectory for inflation and, as pointed out
in this note, a Reserve Bank that is clearly open to further action.

Given this scenario we think that the most likely policy option is a follow
up rate cut in June of 0.25% which will be implemented for the same reasons
as we have seen today complemented by further evidence of softening
confidence and weak business investment.

We have also always argued that our assessment of the global economy is
more subdued than the consensus. The IMF is expecting 4% world growth in
2014 – we are closer to 3%. For Australia's terms of trade, the peak to
trough decline in the 2011–12 period was 17%, while we forecast a 2013–14
decline in the region of 10%. We have long maintained that from a world
growth perspective, 2014 will feel like 2012.

The threat of a disruptive event in Europe remains ever present.

The US story does not convince us. We confidently expect that the US
Federal Reserve will persist with its quantitative easing policy through
most of 2014.

China has already begun the process of recalibrating its monetary and real
estate policy settings and the support it received from the export sector
in Q1 is already receding. Indian domestic demand is flagging badly and the
required policy support has not been adequate. Japan is something of a
bright spot, but its gross acceleration will far exceed the net from a
global growth perspective as it takes back market share.

From June we expect the Bank will be patient to assess the impact on
domestic demand of the low rates. However by year's end it will become
clear that further stimulus will be required to offset the impact of a
softening world economy while the response to the low rates in the domestic
economy will be disappointing.

We anticipate two further rate cuts will be required in the December
quarter of this year and March quarter of next year. That would see the
cash rate bottom out at 2% from its current 2.75%. Having driven rates down
to that level we expect rates to remain on hold through the remainder of
2014.

Our specific profile for the Australian dollar, which had incorporated a
steady cash rate of 2.75% (with downside risks) and a softening world
economy, saw AUD back at USD 0.97 by June next year, partially due to a
gradual narrowing of the overvaluation premium.

With our lower RBA rate profile there is some modest room for further
moderation in the fair value of AUD with our June 2014 target being lowered
to USD 0.96. However, the key to a more significant fall in AUD is a more
marked reduction in that over valuation premium – something that lies
essentially outside the RBA's influence.

 

Bill Evans - Chief Economist - Westpac Banking Corporation

 

This material has been provided for general information purposes and must not be construed as investment advice. This material has been prepared without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Investors should consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to their specific circumstances prior to making any investment decisions and should read the relevant Product Disclosure Statement.

 

Monday, 06 May 2013 09:15

Trauma Insurance - It Won't Happen To Me

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Trauma insurance pays a lump sum upon diagnosis of a specified range of illnesses including cancer, stroke and heart disease.

The payouts can be very helpful for those who suffer these illnesses to pay down debt or to pay for necessary changes to their houses.

How likely are people to be diagnosed with the illnesses covered by trauma insurance though?

The graphic below outlines some of the statistics.

If you would like a quote on Trauma insurance, please contact your adviser.

 

Trauma Picture

Sunday, 05 May 2013 18:31

The Australian Dollar - The best is behind it

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Key pointsWorld Peace

After doubling in value against the $US over the last decade, the best is likely behind for the Australian dollar.

The commodity price boom is starting to fade in response to a moderation in Chinese growth as commodity supply starts to increase, the impact of quantitative easing in the US is being blunted by rate cuts in Australia with the prospect of more to come and the rise in the $A has exposed the high cost base of the Australian economy.

While further gains are likely in the value of the $A against the Yen (to around ¥110 by year end), the $A is likely to remain range bound this year against the $US with the risks on the downside, particularly over the next few years.

For Australian based investors, this means less need to hedge global exposures back to Australian dollars.

Introduction

The last decade saw a huge surge in commodity prices on the back of rapid growth in demand, as China industrialised, and as the supply of commodities was constrained. This hugely benefitted assets geared to commodity prices including emerging market shares in South America, resources companies and of course the Australian dollar which were all star performers.

For the $A it meant a rise from a low in 2001 of $US0.48 to a high in 2011 of $US1.10 and a 70% gain on a trade weighted basis. However, since 2011 the outlook for the Australian dollar has become more confused: commodity prices are high but have been sliding recently; monetary easing (particularly money printing) in the US and Japan is positive for the $A but has been blunted slightly by rate cuts in Australia and the chance of more to come; safe haven flows from central banks looking to diversify have helped support the $A but I get the feeling that they are late to the party and some would question Australia’s safe haven status; and the damage to Australia’s international competitiveness has become more evident.

Purchasing power parity

One of most common ways to value a currency is to compare relative prices. According to purchasing power parity theory, exchange rates should equilibrate the price of a basket of goods and services across countries, such that 100 Australian dollars would buy the same basket of goods in other countries as it does in Australia when translated into their currencies. A rough guide to this is shown in the chart below which shows the $A/$US rate against where it would be if the rate had moved to equilibrate relative consumer price levels between the US and Australia over the last 110 years or so.


Source: RBA, ABS, AMP Capital

Quite clearly purchasing power parity doesn’t work for extended periods with huge divergences evident at various points in time when the $A was fixed such as in the 1950s and 1960s and/or when other factors come into play. In fact, the $A as has gone from being dramatically undervalued in 2001 to similarly overvalued now on this measure now. However, it does provide a guide to where exchange rates are headed over very long periods of time. Such an approach has been popularised over many years by The Economist magazine’s Big Mac index.

An obvious problem with such measures is that they can give different results depending on the estimation period and the types of prices used. The relative consumer price measures used in the chart above would suggest that the $A is currently around 35% overvalued, whereas according to the Big Mac index it is only about 12% overvalued.

However, the broad impression is that the $A is overvalued on a purchasing power parity basis. This is consistent with current perception and news stories recently appearing about how Australia has gone from being a relatively cheap country a decade ago when the $A was much lower to an expensive country today. This suggests the $A could face downward pressure if some of the factors that have been holding it up reverse.

The major factors on this front are commodity prices, relative monetary policies and perceptions of Australia as a safe haven.

Commodity price boom starts to fray

Over the last forty odd years swings in commodity prices have been perhaps the main driver of the big picture swings in the $A. Rising commodity prices helped the $A into the mid 1970s, falling commodities correlated with a fall in the $A until around 2000 and over the last decade rising commodity prices explained the huge surge in the $A. The logic behind this is simple. 70% or so of Australia’s exports are commodities and moves in commodity prices are key drivers of our export earnings. However, the commodity price story is starting to fray at the edges. The pattern for raw material prices over the past century or so has seen roughly a 10 year secular or long term upswing followed by a 10 to 20 year secular bear market, which can sometimes just be a move to the side.


Source: Global Financial Data, Bloomberg, AMP Capital

The upswing is normally driven by a surge in global demand for commodities after a period of mining underinvestment. The downswings come when the pace of demand slows but the supply of commodities picks up in lagged response to the price upswing. After a 12 year bull run since 2000 this pattern would suggest that the commodity price boom may be at or near its end. Specifically, growth in China remains strong but it has slowed a bit (from 10% plus growth to 7 to 8% growth) just at the time when the supply of commodities is about to surge after record levels of mining investment globally. And a basing in the $US is also not helping: the falling $US helped boost commodity prices from around 2002 as they tend to be priced in US dollars. Now with the $US looking a bit stronger this affect is fading.

The chart below shows an index of prices for industrial metals such as copper, zinc, lead, etc, against the $A and suggest that they have gone from a positive influence, leading on the way up last decade, to potentially a negative.

Source: Bloomberg, AMP Capital

Relative monetary policies

Quantitative easing in the US, Japan and elsewhere should be positive for the $A as it means an increase in the supply of US dollars, Yen, etc, relative to the supply of Australian dollars. And indeed it has been. Various rounds of QE in the US have been associated with $A strengthening, and the heightened efforts by Japan on this front only add to this pressure and have helped to push the $A up 25% over the last six months and the trade weighted value for the Australian dollar up to its highest since early 1985. Our assessment remains that as the value of the Yen continues to fall in response to aggressive monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan, the $A will see further gains against the Yen, taking it to around ¥110 by year end.

However, against the $US the impact of quantitative easing may be starting to wain a bit. As can be seen in the chart below, while the first two rounds of quantitative easing in the US were associated with strong gains in the value of the Australian dollar, QE3 has just seen the $A continue to track sideways in the same $US1.02 to $US1.06 range it has been in since last July.

Source: Bloomberg, AMP Capital

This may be partly because QE3 has not seen a rise in commodity prices. But the main reason that the impact of quantitative easing may be starting to wain for the $A is that the interest rate differential in favour of Australia has fallen dramatically as the RBA has cut rates. With the Australian economy still struggling this may have further to go.

What about central bank buying and safe haven demand?

Buying by central banks looking to diversify their foreign exchange reserves and by investors allocating to a diminishing pool of safe AAA rated countries has no doubt played a role in boosting the $A. However, one can’t help but think that after a decade long bull market in the $A (or bear market in the $US) central banks are late to the $A party. And with the fading of the mining boom and the Government struggling to bring the budget back into surplus it has to be recognised that Australia is not without risk. So my feeling is that this source of support for the $A will start to fade.

Implications for investors

The bottom line is the best has likely been seen for the $A and the risks are on the downside over the years ahead as the commodity price boom fades, allowing the $A to correct some of its overvaluation on a purchasing power parity basis.

Currency is very important for investors as soon as they invest in foreign countries. Most global investments offered by fund managers come with a choice of being unhedged, ie exposed to fluctuations in the value of foreign currencies, or hedged, where the value of the investment is locked back into Australian dollars.

Over the last decade unhedged international shares returned 2.7% pa whereas hedged international shares gained 9.5% pa. The difference largely reflects the rise in the $A (+4.4% pa), but also the interest rate differential between Australia and the rest of the world (+2.4% pa). But if the $A is likely to go sideways or down there is much less need to hedge and with the interest rate gap between Australia and the rest of the world narrowing there is much less incentive to hedge.

In other words the reward versus risk equation in favour of the $A is diminishing so it makes more sense for investors now to consider taking an exposure to foreign currencies (ideally with the exception of the Yen) beyond the Australian dollar and obtaining the diversification benefits they provide.

Dr Shane Oliver
Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist
AMP Capital

 

This material has been provided for general information purposes and must not be construed as investment advice. This material has been prepared without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Investors should consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to their specific circumstances prior to making any investment decisions and should read the relevant Product Disclosure Statement.

 

Thursday, 02 May 2013 12:49

Term Deposits - the Great Rotation

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There has been much discussion that the rally in the Australian share market has been as a result of a switch from investors with Term Deposits seeking a higher rate of income.  The chart below would seem to dispell that notion as it shows continued growth of term deposits in Australia to record levels.

Speculation continues of further interest rate cuts in Australia which would reduce term deposit rates even further.  Bill Evans (Westpac Chief Economist) is of the view that interest rates will be cut to 2% by 2014.

Term Deposit Growth chart

So it seems that there has not been a rotation out of term deposits into shares just yet.

This is further evidenced by the next chart which shows equity ownership by Australian households at 20 year lows.

Equity holdings at 20 year lows

Share prices have risen dramatically from low levels, but it would seem not as a result of a mass movement of funds from term deposits.

One can only imagine what may happen if the rotation from term deposits back into shares actually takes place.

 

This material has been provided for general information purposes and must not be construed as investment advice. This material has been prepared without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Investors should consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to their specific circumstances prior to making any investment decisions and should read the relevant Product Disclosure Statement.

 

 

 

 

 

Anton Tagliaferro (CEO Investors Mutual) talks about the Australian Share market in April 2013.

He discusses the stocks that he has been taking profit from and the stocks he is buying at the moment.

Anton's fund was one of the best performing Australian Share funds in 2012.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAf4ZHhl2qc&feature=player_embedded

Friday, 12 April 2013 16:42

Australian Banking Sector - Outlook - April 2013

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Paul Xiradis (CEO Ausbil Funds Management) talks with Mark Draper (Adviser, GEM Capital Financial Advice) about the outlook for the Australian Banking sector.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdnjUQFwg8o

 

Key points:

  1. Bank Balance Sheets are in good shape
  2. Housing downturn concerns overblown
  3. Banks have grown their profits consistently in tough times over past years
  4. Australian mortgage owners are well ahead in their repayment schedules
Monday, 08 April 2013 13:44

Is the Australian Share market Overvalued?

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Should investors be concerned that the Australian share market has run too far, too fast?

Mark Draper (GEM Capital Adviser) talks with Paul Xiradis (CEO Ausbil) to answer this question.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tP9C0truzng

 

Paul believes that the share market response is in reaction to the belief that the worst from the Euro Debt Crisis is now behind us (from a financial market perspective).