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Tuesday, 24 November 2015 10:21

Australian Growth - State by State

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics have released the annual State Accounts.

The state accounts provide annual estimates of output growth by state, Gross State Product.  Quarterly estimates are not available.

The accounts for the 2014/2015 financial year confirm that a growth transtion is underway.  The mining states of the north west, Qld and WA are slowing, while the southern states, Victoria, SA and Tasmania are improving.

WA, despite a loss of momentum, still managed to top the growth charts in 2014/2015 at 3.5%, moderating from 5.6%.  The two largest states came in next, with Victoria at 2.5%, accelerating from 1%, and NSW at 2.4%, rounding up from 2.3%.  Next were SA at 1.6%, rebounding from a soft 0.8%, and Tasmania, also at 1.6%, extending its recovery from 1.3%.  Qld tumbled from 2nd place to 6th place, with output growth of only 0.5%, slowing from 2.8%.

The maturing of the mining investment boom, as construction work on major gas and iron ore projects are progressively completed, was central to the loss of momentum in WA and Qld.  Across the south-east conditions benefitted from the significant easing of monetary conditions - with record low interest rates and a sharply lower currency.

South Australia

SA's economy bounced back, expanding by 1.6%, following a sulggish 0.8% gain in 2013/2014.  As with NSW and Victoria, the key service sectors were the growth engine (particularly retail, hospitality and communications) adding 0.6%, up from only a 0.1% contribution in the previous year.  Health, finance and real estate added 0.9%, up from 0.6%, while conditions were mixed elsewhere.

The outcome for 2014/2015 of 1.6% was only a touch shy of the 1.75% expected by the state government, ahead of an anticiapated rise of 2% in 2015/2016.


The Victorian economy experienced a significant rebound following a couple of disappointing years.  Gross State Product grew by 2.5%, up from 1.0%, an outocme close to the state's long run average of 2.7% and  a little above the state government forecast of 2.25%.  The government expects growth of 2.5% in 2015/2016.

As in NSW, the key service industries strengthened, addinng 0.7%, up from 0.4%.  In addition, it was a good year for both construction (0.5%) and finance (0.4%), as the housing sector responded strongly to low interest rates and an expanding population.


Source:  Westpac Economics 24th November 2015

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