Wednesday, 19 September 2012 12:31

Positive Developments In The Euro Debt Crisis

There have been some very positive developments with respect to the Euro Debt Crisis over the past few months that many would argue is potentially the turning point of the crisis.

View 3 1/2 minute video by Mark Draper explaining some positive developments in Europe

Brandenburg Gate Berlin

In summary these developments are:

  1. The European Stability Mechanism, which has funds of EUR 500bn, will be available for operation in the second half of 2012.  This fund was the subject of a legal challenge to the German High court on constitutional grounds and this challenge was dismissed yesterday.  The purpose of this fund is for recapitalising European Banks as well as funds to purchase Government Bonds in countries such as Italy and Spain in order to keep borrowing rates affordable for those countries.
  1. The European Central Bank (ECB) has announced a program that will allow the ECB to purchase an unlimited amount of Government Bonds in the market for countries that seek assistance and accept strict conditions about aspects of their budgets.  The purpose of this is to guarantee access to funding for European Governments at affordable rates.  We have long argued that Spain and Italy are solvent countries, providing their borrowing costs do not become excessive.  This announcement is critical in keeping interest rates low and has seen borrowing costs for Italy and Spain come down significantly as can be seen below:
Spanish 3 Year Govt Bond Rate Spanish 10 Year Govt Bond Rate Italian 5 year Govt Bond Rate Italian 10 year Govt Bond Rate
Borrowing rate as at November 2011

6.25%

7.6%

(as of July 2012)

7.5%

7.2%

Borrowing rate now

4.4%

5.6%

3.7%

4.95%

  1. We continue to believe that there is very little risk of a financial meltdown resulting from the Euro Debt Crisis or Financial Armageddon.

The Head of the European Central Bank recently went on record as saying “We will do whatever it takes to keep the Euro together, and believe me this will be enough”.  He has backed up this rhetoric with the announcement to purchase an unlimited amount of European Government bonds for countries that request assistance.

Does this mean that this is the end of the crisis?  Unfortunately not, however, we see these developments as very important building blocks that should stabilise the Eurozone and allow the Governments to carry out the necessary reforms to put their economies on a sustainable path.  These reforms include tax, welfare, spending and labour market reforms.

In addition to these the other steps that the leadership of the European Union will need to take is to formulate plans for a Banking Union, and a closer Political union, which would result in individual countries surrendering some degree of control over their budgets in exchange for access to funding at cheaper rates and other economic benefits.

Currently the European Union is a currency union, arguably put together for political reasons, now they must bring together other aspects of their economies.  This is not something that can be done quickly given the political pressures.  The ECB however appear to have provided the necessary time for the politicians to get on with the job as the ECB alone can not resolve this crisis.  This is where we see the main risk – with politicians and potential for the balance of power to shift over time.

The other main source of risk would seem to be with the very high levels of unemployment in countries such as Spain where overall unemployment is around 25% and youth unemployment is around 50%.  This has potential to create social unrest which is difficult to predict.

Overall, we believe that the most recent steps are very positive moves forward that can provide the building blocks for the Euro Debt Crisis to be brought under control and financial markets have welcomed these moves in the form of lower borrowing costs for Italy and Spain.

There is an excellent video we produced earlier this year called “Fire Wall for the European Debt Crisis” that discusses the firewalls that have been created to ensure European Governments continue to have access to funding at affordable rates.  This can be found by clicking the YouTube icon on our website at http://www.gemcapital.com.au and is well worth viewing.  It runs for 6 minutes.

We trust you find this update useful and helps you put into context some of the information you are hearing in the media.

 

This material has been provided for general information purposes and must not be construed as investment advice. This material has been prepared without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Investors should consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to their specific circumstances prior to making any investment decisions and should read the relevant Product Disclosure Statement.

Published in Investment Advice
Wednesday, 30 May 2012 13:10

Update on Debt Crisis in Europe

There has been increasing sharemarket volatility in recent weeks following the inconclusive election results in Greece.

What will happen next?
We believe that policymakers in Europe will be keenly aware of the lessons learnt from the financial crisis of 2008. Because of this, we do not necessarily believe that a disorderly Greek exit is a foregone conclusion.

Elections in Europe demonstrate that budget cuts or austerity will only ever be plausible so long as they have the support of the public. Voters in France, Italy and Greece have all unequivocally rejected the austerity at all costs approach so far in managing the crisis.

The French election has shifted the pendulum towards the possibility of a more lasting solution to the crisis - one that balances long-term structural reform, pro-growth policies and balanced budgets.

Greek exit not a foregone conclusion
While the last election in Greece saw voters resoundingly reject austerity, they equally rejected an exit from the Euro. A disorderly exit may be prevented by political will and the need to contain adverse outcomes for Europe and the rest of the world.

And, make no mistake, policymakers in the US and Asia will be tapping the shoulders of their European counterparts for an immediate and lasting solution. This may see Europe agreeing to fund Greece or a preplanned, orderly exit from the Euro.

What is the impact of the European crisis to the rest of the world?
The relative importance of Europe to Australia is small and declining – less than 10% of our exports go to the region. Asia is much more important and this dominance will only grow on record amounts of investment in the energy and resource sector.

The impact on China is also expected to be manageable. While Europe is China’s biggest customer for its exports, the recent slowdown in China has been driven primarily by higher interest rates to curb uncomfortably high inflation.

The US recovery is also continuing, and for Europe, Greece represents less than 3% of the European economy, implying that the crisis can be managed.

Given the potential escalation to Italy and Spain there is a common interest amongst all to put brinksmanship aside and implement a workable and lasting solution.

Interest rates and the AUD - twin support measures for Australia
If the European situation were to deteriorate Australian policymakers can rely on lower interest rates and a depreciating currency.

The RBA recently cut rates by 50 basis points, which is expected to support the non-resource economy, including retail sales and housing.

The Australian dollar will also track European concerns but the pace of depreciation has so far been much less than during the financial crisis in 2008.

The Federal Government also has scope to provide stimulus to the economy should there be a need to do so.

Things to consider
In periods of uncertainty many turn to cash or other strategies perceived to be safe. It is during these periods that investors all too often make decisions that are contrary to their long-term objectives.

While equity markets may well fall if Greece were to exit the Euro, it is important to also recognise that the global economy is still growing and global companies are making profits, paying back their debt and providing dividends to investors.

At the same time, the return on cash investments will decline on interest rate cuts. Bond markets look fully valued with yields near, or at, record lows for many developed economies.

During uncertain times long-term opportunities are most likely to emerge while equity markets remain below long-term valuations and policymakers may surprise markets, which could lead to a sharp turnaround in the price of equities.

Remember that frequent and undisciplined changes to your portfolio may lead to poor results. History has shown that missing just a few of the best months in equity markets may substantially reduce your overall return.

Note: Advice contained in this article is general in nature and does not consider your personal situation or needs. Please do not act on this advice until its appropriateness has been determined by a qualified adviser.  While the taxation implications of this strategy have been considered, we are not, nor do we purport to be registered tax agents. We strongly recommend you seek detailed tax advice from an appropriately qualified tax agent before proceeding.  The information provided is current as at May 2012.

Published in Australian Economy