Invest like the wealthy

 

Montgomery’s Best of the Best Special Edition

 

 



We’re pleased to share with you the Montgomery Investment Management’s Best of the Best Special Edition.

Montgomery Investment Managers are investors who approach the stock market not as a venue for placing bets on prices moving up or down, but as a venue to purchase small pieces of businesses with the power to grow their worth over time.

For some sensational insights into China’s opportunities (or lack of them), property, share values or whether it’s even worth paying a Fund Manager to hold cash on your behalf, read the Montgomery report.



BEST OF THE BEST
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Published in MOB
Thursday, 14 November 2013 02:52

"Nein" to Nine

Channel-Nine-LogoChannel Nine is being floated on the share market shortly, and for many investors the thought of investing in a household name might be appealing.

Here we outline some of the reasons that investors should be wary of this listing:

1. TV advertising spending has gone nowhere over the last 5 years - here is a chart sourced from the Channel 9 prospectus

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2. Traditional TV is facing a significant threat from the internet such as YouTube, Apple and Google TV just to name a few.

3. Channel Nine's price to earnings ratio is 14-15 - which doesn't strike us as cheap for a business that is being structurally challenged.

4. Current owners are selling 40% of their shares in this offer, and only have to hold their other shares for 12 months.

 

Before subscribing to shares in Channel Nine, investors should seek professional advice.

 

DISCLAIMER: The above information is commentary only (i.e. our general thoughts).  It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, investment advice.  To the extent permitted by law, no liability is accepted for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information.  Before making any investment decision you need to consider (with your financial adviser) your particular investment needs, objectives and circumstances.

 

 

 

Published in Investment Advice
Thursday, 31 October 2013 01:51

Australian Share Market Outlook - October 2013

John Grace (Deputy CEO, Ausbil Funds Management) and one of Australia's most respect Australian Share investors talks about the most recent company reporting season.

John also talks about his outlook for the share market, and his optimism despite a solid rally over the past 12 months.

More importantly he discusses how he has positioned his fund to take advantage of what has been very much a two tier market.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFfHhtpUPOg

 

 

DISCLAIMER: The above information is commentary only (i.e. our general thoughts).  It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, investment advice.  To the extent permitted by law, no liability is accepted for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information.  Before making any investment decision you need to consider (with your financial adviser) your particular investment needs, objectives and circumstances.

Published in Investment Advice
Wednesday, 18 September 2013 16:08

Platinum Asset Management - Investment Approach

We have long been supporters of Platinum Asset Management's ability to manage International investments.

Here is a brief 3 minute video that outlines more about their process and thinking takes place in their management of money.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=xvffumYTxlY

 

DISCLAIMER: The above information is commentary only (i.e. our general thoughts).  It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, investment advice.  To the extent permitted by law, no liability is accepted for any loss or damage as a result of any reliance on this information.  Before making any investment decision you need to consider (with your financial adviser) your particular investment needs, objectives and circumstances.

Published in Investment Advice

The rise of mobile computing has truly been astonishing in the last 5 years since the introduction by Apple of the first iPhone in 2007.

Like the rail road industry in the US in the 1800's, that resulted in the rise of many complimentary industries, so too we see the rise of industries that are connected to the massive increase in mobile computing and e-commerce.  Facebook, Twitter, eBay are now household names that did not exist all that long ago.

While acknowledging that the late 1990's saw a share market tech boom that ended badly, we are now seeing a boom of e-commerce that is of a different quality.

Investors can choose to ignore this and focus on traditional companies, however e-commerce is likely to impact all forms of business and it's impact must be considered when making investment decisions.

By means of an example, the below chart shows the growth in smart phones in China since 2009.  Chinese e-commerce has grown over 70%pa since 2009.

Chinese Smartphone shipments

This growth theme is difficult to play from Australia given our small population by world standards.

We can report however that both Platinum Asset Management and Magellan Financial Group are both well and truly on top of developments in e-Commerce generally and more specifically in China.

This material has been provided for general information purposes and must not be construed as investment advice. This material has been prepared without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Investors should consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to their specific circumstances prior to making any investment decisions and should read the relevant Product Disclosure Statement.

 

Published in Investment Advice
Thursday, 08 August 2013 15:34

The Australian election and investors

The Federal Election

With the much anticipated Australian Federal election now set for 7 September it is natural to wonder what impact, if any, there might be on investment markets – both in terms of the uncertainty created by the election itself and in terms of the outcome. At present while opinion polls have Labor and the Coalition running at around 50% each on a two party preferred basis, according to bets placed on online betting agency Centrebet the Coalition remains the clear favourite.

Source: Centrebet

The performance of markets around elections

Elections can potentially have a short-term impact on investment markets. This is because investors don’t like the uncertainty associated with the prospect of a change in government during the campaign and then there may be relief once the poll is out of the way and possibly optimism associated with the election of a new Government.

The next chart shows Australian share prices from one year before till six months after Federal elections since 1983. This is shown as an average for all elections (but excludes the 1987 and 2007 elections given the global share crash 3 months after the 1987 election and the start of the global financial crisis in 2007), and the periods around the 1983 and 2007 elections, which saw a change of government to Labor, and the 1996 election, which saw a change of government to the Coalition. The chart suggests some evidence of a period of flat lining in the run up to elections, possibly reflecting investor uncertainty before the poll, followed by a relief rally soon after it is over.

Source: Thomson Financial and AMP Capital

However, the elections when there has been a change of government have seen a mixed picture. Shares rose sharply after the 1983 Labor victory but fell sharply after the 2007 Labor win, with global developments playing a big roll in both. After the 1996 Coalition victory shares were flat to down. The point is that based on the historical experience it’s not obvious that a victory by any one party is best for shares in the short term and, in any case, historically the impact of swings in global share markets arguably played a much bigger role than the outcomes of Federal elections.

What is clear though is that after elections shares tend to rise more than they fall.The next table shows that 8 out of 11 elections since 1983 saw the share market up 3 months later with an average gain of 5.4%, which is above the 1.8% average 3 monthly gain over the whole period.

Source: Bloomberg, AMP Capital

The next chart shows the same analysis for the Australian dollar. In the six months or so prior to Federal elections there is some evidence the $A experiences a period of softness and choppiness which is consistent with uncertainty about the policy outlook, but the magnitude of change is small – just a few percent. On average, the $A has drifted sideways after elections. While the $A fell soon after the 1983 Labor victory this was due to a policy devaluation in the dying days of the fixed exchange rate system.

Source: Thomson Financial, AMP Capital

The next chart shows the same analysis for Australian bond yields. Interestingly, on average bond yields have drifted down over the six months prior to Federal elections since 1983. The average decline has been around 0.75% which is contrary to what one might expect if there was investor uncertainty regarding the policy outlook. However, the tendency for bond yields to decline ahead of Federal elections appears to be more related to the aftermath of recessions, growth slowdowns and/or falling inflation prior to the 1983, 1984, 1987 and 1993 elections and the secular decline in bond yields through the 1980s and 1990s in general. More broadly, it’s hard to discern any reliable affect on bond yields from Federal elections.

Source: Thomson Financial, AMP Capital

Policy change and shares

Over the post war period shares have had an average return of 12.9% pa under Liberal/National Coalition Governments compared to 9.8% pa under Labor Governments.

Source: Thomson Financial and AMP Capital

Some might argue though that the Labor Governments led by Whitlam in the 1970s and Rudd and Gillard more recently had the misfortune to be affected by severe global bear markets beyond their control and if these periods are excluded the Labor average rises to 14.6% pa. Then again that may be pushing things a bit too far. But certainly the Hawke/Keating government defied conventional perceptions that conservative governments are always better for shares. Over the Hawke/Keating period from 1983 to 1996 Australian shares returned 17.3% pa, the strongest pace for any post war Australian government.

Once in government political parties of either persuasion are usually forced to adopt sensible macro economic policies if they wish to ensure rising living standards. Both the Coalition and Labor agree on the key macro fundamentals – i.e. the need to keep inflation down, to return the budget to surplus and in the benefit of free markets.

Policy differences

The main areas of difference between the two parties of probable economic significance relate to taxation, climate change, government spending & the budget and regulation.

  • in terms of tax the Coalition has promised to cut the company tax rate (although for large companies this is partly offset by a paid parental leave scheme) and abolish the mining tax;
  • the Coalition is proposing to abolish the carbon tax/Emissions Trading Scheme and will rather pay companies to reduce emissions;
  • the Coalition is likely to take a lighter/more business friendly approach to regulation than a Labor government. This may involve some partial wind back of industry regulation; and
  • the Coalition will likely try and speed up the return to a budget surplus by cutting government spending, much as it did under John Howard following the 1996 election.

As a result, perceptions that the Coalition will be lower taxing and less focussed on regulation and hence more business friendly than a Labor government may increase the chance a Coalition victory will result in a typical post election share market bounce. However, it’s worth noting that this may be partially offset if it announces aggressive fiscal tightening after the election (given the negative impact this could have on economic growth and profits at a time when the economy is already soft). What's more if a returned Labor Government follows up on its commitment to a National Competitiveness Agenda working to seriously boost productivity growth then it could have a positive long term impact on growth, profits and ultimately share market returns.

However, it does seem that there is the potential for significant sectoral impacts with the Coalition’s policies likely to be positive for miners, heavy carbon emitters and small companies (due to the company tax rate cut).

Concluding comments

The historical record points to the strong chance of a post election share market bounce. This may also fit in as we move out of the September quarter, which is often the weakest of the year, into the normally strong December quarter, as the profits reporting season ends in Australia and as uncertainty is removed post a possible September decision by the US Federal Reserve to start tapering its monetary stimulus.

Another potential positive from the election is that it is likely to see the end of minority government in Australia as whoever wins is likely to have a clear majority in the House of Reps. This could help usher in a period of more certain and rational policy making. However, it’s not guaranteed as whoever wins may still not have control of the Senate.

Dr Shane Oliver
Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist
AMP Capital

Important note: While every care has been taken in the preparation of this article, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497) and AMP Capital Funds Management Limited (ABN 15 159 557 721, AFSL 426455) makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, without limitation, any forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This article has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. An investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information in this article, and seek professional advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. This article is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided.
Published in Australian Economy

The Australian share market has experienced a strong rally over the past 12 months, although it must be said that this rally was off a low base.

So the question that all investors want to know - "Is the share market expensive now?"

One way of determining this is to consider the Equity Risk Premium.  Equity Risk Premium by definition is "The excess return that an individual stock or the overall stock market provides over a risk-free rate. This excess return compensates investors for taking on the relatively higher risk of the equity market. The size of the premium will vary as the risk in a particular stock, or in the stock market as a whole, changes; high-risk investments are compensated with a higher premium."

Below is a chart that shows the history of the Equity Risk Premium in Australia and basically this shows that the higher the risk premium, the better value the market.  Or in other words when the graph is above the "average" line the market can be considered to offer better value compared to when the equity risk premium is below average.

Image

 

This material has been provided for general information purposes and must not be construed as investment advice. This material has been prepared without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Investors should consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to their specific circumstances prior to making any investment decisions and should read the relevant Product Disclosure Statement.

Published in Investment Advice
Wednesday, 08 May 2013 13:32

How low can interest rates go?

Interest Rate ImageWe expect the Reserve Bank will complement its May rate cut of 0.25% with a follow up move of 0.25% in June. Rates are expected to eventually
bottom out at 2% by the first quarter of 2014 (that is 0.75% lower than today).

There are ample precedents for a May/June move. Over the last 10 years the Bank has moved rates on four occasions in May with two of those occasions being followed up in June.

The really key new developments over the last few weeks have been evidence
of an even lower than expected trajectory for inflation and, as pointed out
in this note, a Reserve Bank that is clearly open to further action.

Given this scenario we think that the most likely policy option is a follow
up rate cut in June of 0.25% which will be implemented for the same reasons
as we have seen today complemented by further evidence of softening
confidence and weak business investment.

We have also always argued that our assessment of the global economy is
more subdued than the consensus. The IMF is expecting 4% world growth in
2014 – we are closer to 3%. For Australia's terms of trade, the peak to
trough decline in the 2011–12 period was 17%, while we forecast a 2013–14
decline in the region of 10%. We have long maintained that from a world
growth perspective, 2014 will feel like 2012.

The threat of a disruptive event in Europe remains ever present.

The US story does not convince us. We confidently expect that the US
Federal Reserve will persist with its quantitative easing policy through
most of 2014.

China has already begun the process of recalibrating its monetary and real
estate policy settings and the support it received from the export sector
in Q1 is already receding. Indian domestic demand is flagging badly and the
required policy support has not been adequate. Japan is something of a
bright spot, but its gross acceleration will far exceed the net from a
global growth perspective as it takes back market share.

From June we expect the Bank will be patient to assess the impact on
domestic demand of the low rates. However by year's end it will become
clear that further stimulus will be required to offset the impact of a
softening world economy while the response to the low rates in the domestic
economy will be disappointing.

We anticipate two further rate cuts will be required in the December
quarter of this year and March quarter of next year. That would see the
cash rate bottom out at 2% from its current 2.75%. Having driven rates down
to that level we expect rates to remain on hold through the remainder of
2014.

Our specific profile for the Australian dollar, which had incorporated a
steady cash rate of 2.75% (with downside risks) and a softening world
economy, saw AUD back at USD 0.97 by June next year, partially due to a
gradual narrowing of the overvaluation premium.

With our lower RBA rate profile there is some modest room for further
moderation in the fair value of AUD with our June 2014 target being lowered
to USD 0.96. However, the key to a more significant fall in AUD is a more
marked reduction in that over valuation premium – something that lies
essentially outside the RBA's influence.

 

Bill Evans - Chief Economist - Westpac Banking Corporation

 

This material has been provided for general information purposes and must not be construed as investment advice. This material has been prepared without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Investors should consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to their specific circumstances prior to making any investment decisions and should read the relevant Product Disclosure Statement.

 

Published in Investment Advice

It is almost universally accepted that in the Western world we are likely to see a future that features lower economic growth than in previous decades.

Most people automatically draw the conclusion that low GDP growth equals low share market returns.  This article will show you that there is virtually no relationship between GDP growth and share market returns.

The first chart shows the share market returns of developed countries on the vertical axis and at the same time shows GDP growth on the horizontal axis.  You can see that the country with the highest GDP growth is Japan and yet that country had one of the lower share market returns over the period (of 100 years).

Conversely Australia had one of the strong returns from the share market, but was among the lowest GDP growth countries.

We now take a look at developing countries to see if the same holds true for them.

Again we see that the country with the highest share market returns had one of the lowest GDP growth rates.

Ah I hear you say, but none of these charts consider China, which most would highlight as the beacon of economic growth.

The following chart shows Chinese GDP from 2000 to 2012 (measured in $US).  It shows an economy that has grown four fold over that time.

Now lets take a look at the Chinese share market over the same period.

This chart shows that the Chinese share market has barely grown since 2000, and yet the economy (GDP) has grown four fold.

To finish on China we now compare how investors fared in 2012 by investing in Greek shares versus Chinese shares.   The Greek economy is in the middle of a depression while the Chinese economy grew around 7%.  We rest our case.

 

Bottom line - GDP has virtually no relationship to share market returns.

This material has been provided for general information purposes and must not be construed as investment advice. This material has been prepared without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Investors should consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to their specific circumstances prior to making any investment decisions and should read the relevant Product Disclosure Statement.

 

 

 

 

Published in Shares

We recently celebrated the 5th anniversary of the high point for the Australian share market that occurred in November 2007.  The value of the market remains 30-40% below this peak.

History tends to repeat itself so lets compare the last 5 years to other large market downturns in history.

The chart below shows the value of the Australian share market many years after a large drop such as the 2008 drop.  The blue line is the journey investors have witnessed over the last 5 years and plots that journey against other times in history when the market fell heavily.

The question on most investors lips is when will the market recover to new highs?

The chart above shows that it took around 4 years for the market to reach new highs after the 1980 downturn (purple line) and around 5 years after the great 1929 crash (green line). This makes the current downturn one of the most severe in history.

The 1973 and 1987 downturns took 6 - 7 years to recover the previous high.  From the current level the Australian share market would need to rise by around 50% to move back to the previous high.

Bear markets do end and can move quickly when they do.

This material has been provided for general information purposes and must not be construed as investment advice. This material has been prepared without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Investors should consider obtaining professional investment advice tailored to their specific circumstances prior to making any investment decisions and should read the relevant Product Disclosure Statement.


Published in Investment Advice
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