Please click on the link below to view an informative video presentation from Hamish Douglass (Magellan Financial Group CEO) that discusses the uncertainties facing the global economy including Greece, Spain, Portugal, United States and China.
The key points from this update are as follows:
- A spectacular Greek exit from the Euro is very unlikely irrespective of which party wins the June 17th 2012 election. Greece deciding to leave the Euro now is best described as “suicide”. If polls can be believed, 80% of Greeks wish to remain in the Euro.
- Financial issues within Europe are well understood by the authorities including the European Central Bank (ECB) which has made substantial moves already to deal with liquidity in the European Banking system. This sends a signal that the ECB will not idly sit and let the European financial system fail.
- Spanish Banks require additional capital to restore their balance sheets following a property market bubble, possibly as high as EUR 100 billion. The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) is to commence operating in July 2012 and has EUR 500 billion at its disposal and in Hamish’s view, if required could be used to recapitalise Spanish Banks. The French are suggesting methods to increase the ESM financial firepower.
- Low probability that the Spanish Banking system will cause a financial meltdown.
- ECB is in a position to provide assistance to keep borrowing rates affordable for Spain to ensure that Spain does not become insolvent.
- A gradual United States recovery is underway, and on a 3 year view, US housing will lead a sharp recovery in the US economy.
- Chinese economy on track for a “soft landing” (meaning that Chinese economy unlikely to fall off a cliff) and is likely to slowdown gradually.
- Volatility in financial markets is likely to be a feature of the landscape for months to come.